Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting

Denver, CO, United States

Live, first seen by us 81 days ago

Pay: $140,000–200,000/year · Total compensationAnnual period assumed — pay source
The ability to translate forecasts, including their uncertainty, into clear recommendations for non-technical stakeholders. We are committed to equal pay for equal work and believe in compensation transparency. All salary ranges are standardized nationwide and will not vary by region. This role offers a competitive total compensation package, including a base salary of $140,000 - $200,000 and stock options. Compensation offered will be based on a combination of factors such as experience, competencies, and internal equity. Posting Date: 10/26/26 *This role will stay open for a minimum of 3 days.
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Work setting: Not stated
Employment: Not stated

What you’ll work on

Full posting

Develop and improve usage-based forecasting models using statistical and machine learning methods
Raise forecast accuracy and shorten the monthly refresh cycle using backtesting and experiments
Move modeling logic into well-structured, documented, tested code
Partner with Analytics, Data Science, Data Engineering, Product, and Technology on data and systems
Mentor and guide junior team members

From the employer’s posting

Develop and improve the usage-based forecasting models for critical components of clients' education benefit with Guild, using advanced statistical and machine learning techniques.

Raise forecast accuracy and shorten the monthly refresh cycle, using a backtesting and experimentation framework to test methodological changes with rigor.

Transfer modeling logic out of individual heads into well-structured, documented, tested code

Partner cross-functionally with Analytics, Data Science, Data Engineering, Product, and Technology teams to improve the data, systems, and infrastructure the forecast depends on.

Mentor and guide junior team members, fostering a culture of continuous learning and innovation.

Apply at Guild

Posting record

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Status in our records: Live
First seen by us: Aug 16, 202681 days ago
Recorded sightings: 33
Last seen by us: Nov 5, 2026

These dates show when we found the posting. Check the employer’s website to confirm it is still accepting applications.

How this job compares

Pay

In line with similar jobs

$140K–$200K against $118K–$193K, the middle half of what similar US postings state.

From 3,721 postings in the last year. Stated ranges, not salaries paid.

Time since we first saw it

Day 81

Up longer than most. Similar jobs usually come down between day 7 and day 56.

From 10,198 similar postings that came down. Coming down is not always a hire.

Guild is hiring

1 open job

Open jobs by the week we first saw them, last 12 weeks.

Hiring record

See how this role fits your experience

Add your resume and we’ll mark which of these tools you already use, and point out anything in the posting that could rule you out.

Python
R
SQL
Databricks
Looker
MLflow
Tableau

Where the posting names them

- Strong experience with SQL and experience transforming and structuring large datasets into reusable formats. - Proficiency in Python and/or R, with depth across time-series and machine learning forecasting methods and sound judgment about the tradeoffs among accuracy, interpretability, and stability. - Experience operationalizing models — backtesting, validation, monitoring, drift detection, retraining — ideally on a platform such as Databricks with experiment tracking (e.g., MLflow).

- 5+ years of total experience in analytics, data science, forecasting, or financial planning & analysis. - Strong experience with SQL and experience transforming and structuring large datasets into reusable formats. - Proficiency in Python and/or R, with depth across time-series and machine learning forecasting methods and sound judgment about the tradeoffs among accuracy, interpretability, and stability.

- Proficiency in Python and/or R, with depth across time-series and machine learning forecasting methods and sound judgment about the tradeoffs among accuracy, interpretability, and stability. - Experience operationalizing models — backtesting, validation, monitoring, drift detection, retraining — ideally on a platform such as Databricks with experiment tracking (e.g., MLflow). - A track record of getting productive quickly in an existing codebase and improving it collaboratively.

- A track record of getting productive quickly in an existing codebase and improving it collaboratively. - Experience with Looker, Tableau, Omni, or similar data visualization tool. - Fluency with AI-assisted development tools such as Cursor, Claude Code, or similar coding agents.

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Demand for Data Scientist roles

New Data Scientist postings at the employers we follow are down 3% over the last 5 weeks compared with the 5 before.

August 17Last week

Each bar is one week of new postings. The darkest bars are the last 5 weeks.

Counted from the hiring pages we’ve followed for at least five weeks, so employers we add don’t look like growth. Updated weekly.

About the role

We file this job under Data Scientist, by the work the posting describes.

Data scientists use statistics and models to answer harder questions, such as whether a change worked, what demand will look like next quarter, or which customers are likely to leave.

Postings usually ask for Python or R, SQL, statistics, experiment design and common machine learning methods.

Unlike an ML engineer, a data scientist's main output is often an analysis or a first model, not software running inside a product.

US government figures for data scientists

Median yearly pay, May 2025: $120,230
Expected change, 2025 to 2035: 34.6% more jobsagainst 3.5% for all jobs

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (May 2025) and Employment Projections (2025 to 2035). Occupation code 15-2051.

Job description

View original posting ↗

To thrive as a company and meet our impact goals, we must cultivate a culture of high-performance. You can read about our culture principles here.

We know managers are often the single-largest driver of employee satisfaction and growth, and our talent is our biggest asset. Because of that, we’ve identified consistent expectations for all of Guild’s people managers — helping you know what to expect from your experience here.

If you are an Internal Candidate, please apply via our Internal Job Board.

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Guild is hiring a Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting to scale the impact of our Forecasting and Financial Analytics team. You'll own and improve critical components of our most complex and most important forecasting model — working inside a modern, modular forecasting system and experimentation framework to drive step-change improvements in how well we forecast clients' education benefit program.

As a Lead Data Scientist, Forecasting, you will:

Develop and improve the usage-based forecasting models for critical components of clients' education benefit with Guild, using advanced statistical and machine learning techniques.
Raise forecast accuracy and shorten the monthly refresh cycle, using a backtesting and experimentation framework to test methodological changes with rigor. Build tooling and process to catch correctable model issues.
Transfer modeling logic out of individual heads into well-structured, documented, tested code, building redundancy on a business-critical forecast.
Partner cross-functionally with Analytics, Data Science, Data Engineering, Product, and Technology teams to improve the data, systems, and infrastructure the forecast depends on.
Mentor and guide junior team members, fostering a culture of continuous learning and innovation.
Produce insights, analyses, and recommendations to help internal stakeholders understand forecast drivers and the impact on client and internal business metrics.

You are a strong fit for this role if you have:

5+ years of total experience in analytics, data science, forecasting, or financial planning & analysis.
Strong experience with SQL and experience transforming and structuring large datasets into reusable formats.
Proficiency in Python and/or R, with depth across time-series and machine learning forecasting methods and sound judgment about the tradeoffs among accuracy, interpretability, and stability.
Experience operationalizing models — backtesting, validation, monitoring, drift detection, retraining — ideally on a platform such as Databricks with experiment tracking (e.g., MLflow).
A track record of getting productive quickly in an existing codebase and improving it collaboratively.
Experience with Looker, Tableau, Omni, or similar data visualization tool.
Fluency with AI-assisted development tools such as Cursor, Claude Code, or similar coding agents.
The ability to translate forecasts, including their uncertainty, into clear recommendations for non-technical stakeholders.

We are committed to equal pay for equal work and believe in compensation transparency. All salary ranges are standardized nationwide and will not vary by region. This role offers a competitive total compensation package, including a base salary of $140,000 - $200,000 and stock options. Compensation offered will be based on a combination of factors such as experience, competencies, and internal equity.

Posting Date: 10/26/26
*This role will stay open for a minimum of 3 days.

Guild partners with the country’s most innovative employers, including Chipotle, Target, Walgreens, JPMorgan Chase, Hilton, Spectrum, PepsiCo, Tyson, and more, to build the talent needed for today and a resilient workforce for tomorrow. Guild helps employers identify, develop, and mobilize internal talent, enabling workers to gain skills for in-demand roles and companies to stay agile.

By connecting employees to real-world learning, coaching, and career support, and providing companies with actionable talent insights, Guild transforms all talent into high-impact contributors and positions companies for long-term, sustainable growth. For more information, visit https://www.guild.com.

Guild is a female-founded, certified B Corp. The company has been recognized by Fortune’s Change the World list (2021, 2025), the Forbes Cloud 100 (2020–2025), Great Place to Work (2022–2025), CNBC’s Disruptor 50 (2021–2024), TIME’s 100 Most Influential Companies (2022), Inc.’s Best-Led Companies (2021), Fast Company’s World Changing Ideas (2020), and B Lab’s Best for the World (2019), among many others.

Guild is an equal opportunity employer. We celebrate diversity and are committed to creating an inclusive environment for all employees. If you have a disability or special need that requires accommodation, please let your recruiter know. We currently offer the following benefits:

Access to low-cost, high-quality health care options through Collective Health and Kaiser (due to coverage limitations, Kaiser is currently only available in CA & CO)
Access to a 401k to help save for the future
Vacation policy to rest and recharge
8 days of fully-paid sick leave, to take the time to heal and or recover
Family-friendly benefits, including 12 weeks of parental leave for non-birthing parents and 18-20 weeks for birthing parents; 2-week ramp-up period for when employees return from a leave of 6 weeks or more; as well as employer-paid short-term and long-term disability, employer-sponsored life insurance, fertility and caregiving benefits.
Well-rounded wellness benefits including free and low cost mental health resources and financial wellbeing support services
Education benefits and tuition assistance to help your future development and growth

Our home and headquarters in Denver, but some of our roles allow for remote work, allowing us to reach the best talent across the US. Please refer to the job location referenced below the job posting title to determine location. Roles based outside of our Denver office can sit in any of the following 32 states: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WI and Washington D.C. State locations and specifics are subject to change as our hiring requirements shift.

PRIVACY NOTICE

I understand that I am applying for employment with Guild and am being asked to provide information in connection with my application. I further understand that Guild gathers this information through a third-party service provider and that Guild may use other service providers to assist in the application process. Guild may share my information with such third-party service providers in connection with my application and for the start of employment.

I understand and agree to Guild's use of my information in accordance with Guild's Privacy Policy and, for applicants that are residents of the State of California, Guild's Applicant Privacy Notice and California Notice at Collection.

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